Modelling current and future distribution of <em>Aedes aegypti</em> (Diptera: Culicidae) under climate change scenarios in Africa

Author : Ahmed H. Abdelwahab, Sanad H. Ragab, Michael G. Tyshenko, Ahmed S. Hashem

Climate change is altering mosquito distribution by expanding the geographic range of species like Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) into previously inhospitable areas due to rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns. This shift increases the risk of mosquito-borne diseases in regions that were once unaffected, posing new public health challenges globally. Ae. aegypti is the vector that spreads the arboviral illnesses dengue fever, chikungunya, and zika. Studying Ae. aegypti's probable geographic distribution habitats in Africa under present and projected climatic circumstances is the goal of the current research. The scenarios used are the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC-CSM2-MR) with two Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) for each of the general circulation model (GCMs): SSP126. Altitude, temperature, seasonality (standard deviation *100; bio4), and yearly precipitation (bio12) were found to be the most significant environmental factors influencing Ae. aegypti's spread.

Keywords : Mosquitoes, prediction, geographic distribution, R Package, (BCC-CSM2-MR).,

Received:4/20/2024 12:00:00 AM; Accepted: 5/25/2024 12:00:00 AM